Data Exploration

We’ll look at how much the scoring systems for FanDuel and DraftKings differ from our projections scrape.

It seems that WRs certainly get a point boost from being on DraftKings, which makes sense as DraftKings is full PPR and includes 100+ yard game bonuses. The difference gets slimmer when we look at RB (specifically in the higher tiers) and even more so when looking at QBs.

As we can see, there is some variation near the top, but overall the data is relatively clustered with no large outliers. We see a wide variation in QBs, WRs, and RBs which is to be expected- since there are so many rostered at each position. Now, let’s look at FanDuel and DraftKings separately to see if there are any plays that we can exploit.

In FanDuel cash games, 130 points is an arbitrary number that seems to win you 90% of the time. Thus, any point above this line are our “value” plays. They are projected to get over 2.2x value. However, studs are still studs. This line should help decided what lower tiered players to play, or maybe if there’s a debate between two solid plays. As we get to lower salaries, however, there are less “value” plays. And this makes sense. DFS is about finding these low-priced values in order to be able to rightfully pay up for studs. Additionally, very rarely will we see any DST above this “value” threshold. This is why paying up for defenses doesn’t make sense in the majority of scenarios; rather we should look for defenses that will provide us with the most points per dollar. Again, this frees up money to pay for our more expensive players.

As per DKNation, we should target 125 points, putting us generally in the top 45% needed to win cash games. With DraftKings, we see a modest increase in the amount of value plays, as we see DST closer to our value threshold, as well as more middle-tiered players. Again, we’ll make sure to pay up for studs, but we can see what value plays are out there.

Stacks

We can see how player are projected to do, but that doesn’t help us outright with DFS. Often times, we want to create stacks, where we combine a team’s QB and receiving options (WRs and TEs), so we can correlate our scores. We’ll look at stacking the top receiver and their QB, along with the top two and three with their pass-thrower.

FanDuel

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
34.81892 13800 2.523 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.76500 7700 Brandin Cooks 13.053918 6100
33.51054 14800 2.264 TEN Ryan Tannehill 19.15345 7300 A.J. Brown 14.357088 7500
32.89875 15000 2.193 MIN Kirk Cousins 18.59490 7100 Adam Thielen 14.303853 7900
28.09455 12900 2.178 CLE Baker Mayfield 16.65605 7000 Jarvis Landry 11.438500 5900
25.97605 12400 2.095 MIA Ryan Fitzpatrick 13.27955 6200 DeVante Parker 12.696500 6200
34.30123 16500 2.079 LAC Justin Herbert 20.27310 8500 Keenan Allen 14.028134 8000
28.18090 13600 2.072 NE Cam Newton 18.10640 7600 Jakobi Meyers 10.074500 6000
29.77330 14400 2.068 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 17.86580 8000 Diontae Johnson 11.907500 6400
38.03335 18500 2.056 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.68510 9000 Davante Adams 17.348250 9500
29.85487 15600 1.914 ATL Matt Ryan 16.30900 7800 Calvin Ridley 13.545873 7800
24.92164 13200 1.888 PHI Carson Wentz 16.56815 7400 Dallas Goedert 8.353492 5800
24.96502 13500 1.849 DET Matthew Stafford 15.85520 7500 T.J. Hockenson 9.109817 6000
20.48160 11100 1.845 JAX Mike Glennon 15.00910 6200 Chris Conley 5.472500 4900
23.03200 12600 1.828 CIN Brandon Allen 13.08000 6000 Tyler Boyd 9.952000 6600
25.10090 13900 1.806 WAS Alex Smith 12.69710 6600 Terry McLaurin 12.403799 7300
19.17302 15400 1.245 NO Jameis Winston 5.76300 7200 Michael Thomas 13.410024 8200
11.72525 11400 1.029 IND Jacoby Brissett 2.92325 6000 T.Y. Hilton 8.802000 5400
9.90250 12700 0.780 NYJ Joe Flacco 0.56300 6100 Jamison Crowder 9.339500 6600

Stack 2

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
65.38242 26000 2.515 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.76500 7700 Brandin Cooks 13.053918 6100
Keke Coutee 8.798500 4500
65.16115 28800 2.263 MIN Kirk Cousins 18.59490 7100 Adam Thielen 14.303853 7900
Justin Jefferson 13.667500 6700
62.56974 28000 2.235 TEN Ryan Tannehill 19.15345 7300 A.J. Brown 14.357088 7500
Corey Davis 9.905750 5900
52.12269 25000 2.085 CLE Baker Mayfield 16.65605 7000 Jarvis Landry 11.438500 5900
Austin Hooper 7.372092 5100
63.95733 30900 2.070 LAC Justin Herbert 20.27310 8500 Keenan Allen 14.028134 8000
Mike Williams 9.383000 5900
58.65060 28800 2.036 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 17.86580 8000 Diontae Johnson 11.907500 6400
Chase Claypool 11.011500 6400
66.75320 33000 2.023 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.68510 9000 Davante Adams 17.348250 9500
Allen Lazard 8.034750 5500
53.49780 26500 2.019 NE Cam Newton 18.10640 7600 Jakobi Meyers 10.074500 6000
Damiere Byrd 7.210500 5300
46.67037 23900 1.953 MIA Ryan Fitzpatrick 13.27955 6200 DeVante Parker 12.696500 6200
Mike Gesicki 7.414772 5300
58.51640 31500 1.858 ATL Matt Ryan 16.30900 7800 Calvin Ridley 13.545873 7800
Julio Jones 12.352524 8100
40.53495 21900 1.851 JAX Mike Glennon 15.00910 6200 Chris Conley 5.472500 4900
Tyler Eifert 5.044250 4600
45.50975 25100 1.813 CIN Brandon Allen 13.08000 6000 Tyler Boyd 9.952000 6600
Tee Higgins 9.397750 6500
49.32379 27400 1.800 PHI Carson Wentz 16.56815 7400 Dallas Goedert 8.353492 5800
Travis Fulgham 7.834000 6800
44.43022 25700 1.729 DET Matthew Stafford 15.85520 7500 T.J. Hockenson 9.109817 6000
Quintez Cephus 3.610000 4700
44.15300 1.718 WAS Alex Smith 12.69710 6600 Terry McLaurin 12.403799 7300
Logan Thomas 6.355000 5200
31.96102 28200 1.133 NO Jameis Winston 5.76300 7200 Michael Thomas 13.410024 8200
Emmanuel Sanders 7.025000 5600
21.98600 22600 0.973 IND Jacoby Brissett 2.92325 6000 T.Y. Hilton 8.802000 5400
Trey Burton 7.337500 5200
19.64800 24500 0.802 NYJ Joe Flacco 0.56300 6100 Jamison Crowder 9.339500 6600
Breshad Perriman 9.182500 5700

Stack 3

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
93.40742 38600 2.420 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.76500 7700 Brandin Cooks 13.053918 6100
Keke Coutee 8.798500 4500
Jordan Akins 6.260000 4900
90.82080 40400 2.248 MIN Kirk Cousins 18.59490 7100 Adam Thielen 14.303853 7900
Justin Jefferson 13.667500 6700
Kyle Rudolph 7.064750 4500
88.82569 40100 2.215 TEN Ryan Tannehill 19.15345 7300 A.J. Brown 14.357088 7500
Corey Davis 9.905750 5900
Anthony Firkser 7.102500 4800
93.33649 44900 2.079 LAC Justin Herbert 20.27310 8500 Keenan Allen 14.028134 8000
Mike Williams 9.383000 5900
Hunter Henry 9.106060 5500
75.67324 37400 2.023 CLE Baker Mayfield 16.65605 7000 Jarvis Landry 11.438500 5900
Austin Hooper 7.372092 5100
Rashard Higgins 6.894500 5400
87.11740 43300 2.012 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 17.86580 8000 Diontae Johnson 11.907500 6400
Chase Claypool 11.011500 6400
JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.601000 6500
95.09293 47600 1.998 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.68510 9000 Davante Adams 17.348250 9500
Allen Lazard 8.034750 5500
Robert Tonyan 7.654633 5600
76.64845 39400 1.945 NE Cam Newton 18.10640 7600 Jakobi Meyers 10.074500 6000
Damiere Byrd 7.210500 5300
N’Keal Harry 5.044250 5300
65.60267 34700 1.891 MIA Ryan Fitzpatrick 13.27955 6200 DeVante Parker 12.696500 6200
Mike Gesicki 7.414772 5300
Jakeem Grant 5.652750 4600
82.26224 44800 1.836 ATL Matt Ryan 16.30900 7800 Calvin Ridley 13.545873 7800
Julio Jones 12.352524 8100
Hayden Hurst 7.436844 5500
73.22744 40400 1.813 PHI Carson Wentz 16.56815 7400 Dallas Goedert 8.353492 5800
Travis Fulgham 7.834000 6800
Jalen Reagor 7.335500 5600
65.13175 36600 1.780 CIN Brandon Allen 13.08000 6000 Tyler Boyd 9.952000 6600
Tee Higgins 9.397750 6500
A.J. Green 6.542000 5500
56.62405 32700 1.732 JAX Mike Glennon 15.00910 6200 Chris Conley 5.472500 4900
Tyler Eifert 5.044250 4600
Collin Johnson 1.080000 4600
63.01842 37800 1.667 DET Matthew Stafford 15.85520 7500 T.J. Hockenson 9.109817 6000
Quintez Cephus 3.610000 4700
Mohamed Sanu 2.733000 4600
60.57110 36800 1.646 WAS Alex Smith 12.69710 6600 Terry McLaurin 12.403799 7300
Logan Thomas 6.355000 5200
Dontrelle Inman 3.721000 4500
42.69302 41500 1.029 NO Jameis Winston 5.76300 7200 Michael Thomas 13.410024 8200
Emmanuel Sanders 7.025000 5600
Jared Cook 4.969000 6100
30.71425 33900 0.906 IND Jacoby Brissett 2.92325 6000 T.Y. Hilton 8.802000 5400
Trey Burton 7.337500 5200
Zach Pascal 5.805000 5300
29.34475 36000 0.815 NYJ Joe Flacco 0.56300 6100 Jamison Crowder 9.339500 6600
Breshad Perriman 9.182500 5700
Denzel Mims 9.133750 5400

DraftKings

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
37.80434 13100 2.886 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.85500 7500 Brandin Cooks 15.94934 5600
22.09660 7800 2.833 JAX Mike Glennon 15.30910 4800 Chris Conley 6.78750 3000
27.24264 9700 2.809 PHI Carson Wentz 16.86815 5400 Dallas Goedert 10.37449 4300
26.03950 9500 2.741 CIN Brandon Allen 13.48000 4800 Tyler Boyd 12.55950 4700
30.66090 11300 2.713 NE Cam Newton 18.20640 5800 Jakobi Meyers 12.45450 5500
30.83455 11500 2.681 CLE Baker Mayfield 16.75605 5300 Jarvis Landry 14.07850 6200
42.02335 15800 2.660 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.86010 6800 Davante Adams 21.16325 9000
35.96286 13700 2.625 MIN Kirk Cousins 18.79490 6400 Adam Thielen 17.16796 7300
36.18813 13800 2.622 TEN Ryan Tannehill 19.27845 6200 A.J. Brown 16.90968 7600
32.64325 12800 2.550 ATL Matt Ryan 16.48400 5600 Calvin Ridley 16.15925 7200
27.19733 10700 2.542 DET Matthew Stafford 16.03020 5700 T.J. Hockenson 11.16713 5000
37.99187 15000 2.533 LAC Justin Herbert 20.42310 6900 Keenan Allen 17.56877 8100
32.77830 13000 2.521 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 17.94080 6500 Diontae Johnson 14.83750 6500
28.03345 11900 2.356 WAS Alex Smith 12.84710 5100 Terry McLaurin 15.18635 6800
28.55730 12400 2.303 MIA Ryan Fitzpatrick 13.33455 6000 DeVante Parker 15.22275 6400
22.41680 12700 1.765 NO Jameis Winston 5.80300 5700 Michael Thomas 16.61380 7000
13.81775 8700 1.588 IND Jacoby Brissett 2.99325 4400 T.Y. Hilton 10.82450 4300
12.19000 10000 1.219 NYJ Joe Flacco 0.58300 4900 Jamison Crowder 11.60700 5100

Stack 2

Now, the top two receivers and their QB:

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
70.70284 24100 2.934 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.85500 7500 Brandin Cooks 15.949336 5600
Keke Coutee 11.043500 3500
43.75620 15600 2.805 JAX Mike Glennon 15.30910 4800 Chris Conley 6.787500 3000
Tyler Eifert 6.350500 3000
56.85953 20600 2.760 CLE Baker Mayfield 16.75605 5300 Jarvis Landry 14.078500 6200
Austin Hooper 9.268935 3800
57.88655 21000 2.757 NE Cam Newton 18.20640 5800 Jakobi Meyers 12.454500 5500
Damiere Byrd 9.019250 3900
51.07850 18900 2.703 CIN Brandon Allen 13.48000 4800 Tyler Boyd 12.559500 4700
Tee Higgins 11.559000 4600
67.49483 25100 2.689 TEN Ryan Tannehill 19.27845 6200 A.J. Brown 16.909676 7600
Corey Davis 12.028250 5100
53.86979 20300 2.654 PHI Carson Wentz 16.86815 5400 Dallas Goedert 10.374485 4300
Travis Fulgham 9.759000 5200
72.73820 27600 2.635 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.86010 6800 Davante Adams 21.163250 9000
Allen Lazard 9.854750 5000
70.95526 27000 2.628 MIN Kirk Cousins 18.79490 6400 Adam Thielen 17.167956 7300
Justin Jefferson 16.197500 6900
69.67259 26700 2.609 LAC Justin Herbert 20.42310 6900 Keenan Allen 17.568768 8100
Hunter Henry 11.257619 4800
64.07504 25000 2.563 ATL Matt Ryan 16.48400 5600 Calvin Ridley 16.159246 7200
Julio Jones 14.947797 6600
64.07935 25800 2.484 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 17.94080 6500 Diontae Johnson 14.837500 6500
Chase Claypool 13.360250 6300
47.78753 19400 2.463 DET Matthew Stafford 16.03020 5700 T.J. Hockenson 11.167133 5000
Quintez Cephus 4.560000 3000
48.86305 20400 2.395 WAS Alex Smith 12.84710 5100 Terry McLaurin 15.186348 6800
Logan Thomas 7.982500 3400
50.93389 22600 2.254 MIA Ryan Fitzpatrick 13.33455 6000 DeVante Parker 15.222750 6400
Mike Gesicki 9.042044 4200
36.89980 23100 1.597 NO Jameis Winston 5.80300 5700 Michael Thomas 16.613797 7000
Emmanuel Sanders 8.680000 4700
25.64350 16600 1.545 IND Jacoby Brissett 2.99325 4400 T.Y. Hilton 10.824500 4300
Trey Burton 8.832500 3500
24.06050 19000 1.266 NYJ Joe Flacco 0.58300 4900 Jamison Crowder 11.607000 5100
Denzel Mims 11.287500 4100

Stack 3

And finally, our most correlated stack. Often times, we would want to run this back with a receiver on the opposing team, but we’ll deal with that later.

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
100.34534 34500 2.909 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.85500 7500 Brandin Cooks 15.949336 5600
Keke Coutee 11.043500 3500
Jordan Akins 7.787500 2900
95.43828 33800 2.824 TEN Ryan Tannehill 19.27845 6200 A.J. Brown 16.909676 7600
Corey Davis 12.028250 5100
Anthony Firkser 8.665000 2500
82.57470 29800 2.771 NE Cam Newton 18.20640 5800 Jakobi Meyers 12.454500 5500
Damiere Byrd 9.019250 3900
N’Keal Harry 6.481750 3000
81.98133 29900 2.742 CLE Baker Mayfield 16.75605 5300 Jarvis Landry 14.078500 6200
Austin Hooper 9.268935 3800
Rashard Higgins 8.365750 4000
72.67300 26800 2.712 CIN Brandon Allen 13.48000 4800 Tyler Boyd 12.559500 4700
Tee Higgins 11.559000 4600
A.J. Green 8.114500 3100
102.80007 38100 2.698 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.86010 6800 Davante Adams 21.163250 9000
Allen Lazard 9.854750 5000
Robert Tonyan 9.201765 3700
98.63741 36800 2.680 MIN Kirk Cousins 18.79490 6400 Adam Thielen 17.167956 7300
Justin Jefferson 16.197500 6900
Kyle Rudolph 8.887250 3400
79.93219 30200 2.647 PHI Carson Wentz 16.86815 5400 Dallas Goedert 10.374485 4300
Travis Fulgham 9.759000 5200
Jalen Reagor 9.194250 4500
101.14369 38400 2.634 LAC Justin Herbert 20.42310 6900 Keenan Allen 17.568768 8100
Hunter Henry 11.257619 4800
Mike Williams 11.048000 4800
89.87798 34600 2.598 ATL Matt Ryan 16.48400 5600 Calvin Ridley 16.159246 7200
Julio Jones 14.947797 6600
Hayden Hurst 9.318938 4000
60.45530 23700 2.551 JAX Mike Glennon 15.30910 4800 Chris Conley 6.787500 3000
Tyler Eifert 6.350500 3000
Collin Johnson 1.390000 3300
95.16365 38100 2.498 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 17.94080 6500 Diontae Johnson 14.837500 6500
Chase Claypool 13.360250 6300
JuJu Smith-Schuster 13.143500 5800
67.24573 28100 2.393 DET Matthew Stafford 16.03020 5700 T.J. Hockenson 11.167133 5000
Quintez Cephus 4.560000 3000
Mohamed Sanu 3.428000 3000
66.32490 28700 2.311 WAS Alex Smith 12.84710 5100 Terry McLaurin 15.186348 6800
Logan Thomas 7.982500 3400
Dontrelle Inman 4.614750 3200
71.33369 32100 2.222 MIA Ryan Fitzpatrick 13.33455 6000 DeVante Parker 15.222750 6400
Mike Gesicki 9.042044 4200
Jakeem Grant 7.065250 3500
48.78930 32500 1.501 NO Jameis Winston 5.80300 5700 Michael Thomas 16.613797 7000
Emmanuel Sanders 8.680000 4700
Jared Cook 6.086500 3700
35.84925 24500 1.463 IND Jacoby Brissett 2.99325 4400 T.Y. Hilton 10.824500 4300
Trey Burton 8.832500 3500
Zach Pascal 7.212500 3500
35.60600 27800 1.281 NYJ Joe Flacco 0.58300 4900 Jamison Crowder 11.607000 5100
Denzel Mims 11.287500 4100
Breshad Perriman 10.962500 3900

Again, we’ll want to see which of these stacks is the most expensive, so we’ll graph the stacks projected points against their total salary. We’ll look for more value in our stacks, since they’re heavily correlated and are able to outperform their projections.